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When I came across Sam Caplan’s article entitled “Why Brock Lesnar will beat Frank Mir“, I felt compelled to issue a response arguing why Frank Mir will win against Brock Lesnar.

I love Sam’s articles and insight on both ProElite.com and his Five Ounces of Pain blog. However, as soon as I read the title of his article, I immediately assumed it was going to be a sarcasm editorial. I was wrong. Sam provides four points to back up his claims that Brock Lesnar will defeat Mir and is confident enough to sum up his article by saying “Take it to the bank.”

Bad idea in my opinion, and here’s why…

(1) “Mir’s striking isn’t good enough to expose Lesnar’s standup” [SC]

In my opinion, Mir’s standup game is easily good enough to expose Lesnar’s weakness and lack of experience on his feet. Lesnar has absolutely ZERO experience standing and trading punches. In his only MMA fight, Lesnar did not even throw a single punch on his feet against Min Soo Kim; not a single punch. Lesnar was extremely tentative on his feet, even against someone like Kim, and grabbed Kim’s weak inside leg kick and took the match to the ground 15 seconds into the fight.

While Mir’s strength is without a doubt his submission game, he has fought MMA long enough that he knows how to stand and throw decent strikes both with his hands and feet. Mir will never been considered a great striker, but he doesn’t need to be GREAT to expose Lesnar on the feet. All Mir will need to do is land a few jabs to Lesnar’s face and a few solid leg kicks to his knees and thighs and Lesnar will already be way over his head. I definitely see Mir working from a distance utilizing solid leg kicks to soften Lesnar up and cut down any speed and mobility he may have. Sure, Lesnar took Kim down from a leg kick attempt, but it was one of the weakest kicks you’ll see thrown in a fight.

Sam cites some comments by Pat Miletich about Lesnar saying that Lesnar is surprisingly light on his feet for a big man. In Caplan’s words:

Footwork is the first step in the long road towards becoming a polished striker.

There are other reasons why I believe Lesnar will prove to be an effective striker. He showed impressive power and accuracy when he was raining shots down on Min Soo Kim from the mount at “Dynamite USA!!” in June.

Throwing punches from the punch and on the feet are two different things, but you could at least see the power in Lesnar’s hands. If some of that power can transcend to his standup game, at the very least he’ll give opponents something else to have to be concerned about in addition to his wrestling ability.

For those of you who didn’t see Lesnar’s K-1 fight (his only MMA fight to date) here it is:

Sure Lesnar has power in his hands and threw some solid punches from the mount, but that was against a fighter who was holding on for dear life and not even attempting to strike back in return. Frank Mir is not going to lay back and hold on tight to Lesnar’s neck while Brock tee’s off. Mir will throw strikes and elbows from his back and work to secure a submission repeatedly. Also, Brock won’t be able to pass Mir’s guard as easily, if at all, to establish the mount position.

Sam also says:

The experience edge goes to Mir, without question. That being said, I still see more ways for Lesnar to win this fight than I do for Mir.

I’m not quite sure what those ways for Lesnar to win are? I count one way for Brock to win: take Frank down, establish a quick mount, and hope his ground-and-pound can finish the fight early. Mir can win via submission on his back, from the mount, from the guard, and on his feet as well as via ground-and-pound and standing strikes like he did against Wes Sims. My basic math tells me that Frank has more ways to win than Brock does.

(2) “This isn’t a grappling tournament” [SC]

Lesnar has tremendous wrestling credentials but does not have a lot of MMA training time under his belt in comparison to Mir. Mir is clearly the more accomplished grappler and has the submission skills needed to make an inexperienced grappler look foolish. However, with Lesnar having trained in MMA for a year and a half now, I believe he has the experience needed to make sure he doesn’t get worked on the mat.

There’s really only one way in which I believe Mir can win, and that’s by catching Lesnar in a submission. The problem is, I think Lesnar has enough training time that he’s not going to hand Mir his neck or arm on a silver platter. In other words, if Mir wants to tap Lesnar, he’s going to have to work for it.

What?!?!?! Lesnar has trained for a year and a half now and that will enable him to avoid being submitted by Frank Mir? Does that even make sense? Sam, a grappler himself, must know the difference between training and an actual fight. Caplan admits that Mir has the submission skills needed to “make an inexperienced grappler look foolish” but then says that after only a year and a half, Lesnar is no longer an “inexperienced grappler” and won’t get worked on the mat? This is only plausible if you assume that Lesnar has been training non-stop in grappling over the past 18 months, and even then it is a bit of a stretch.

Sam says that Lesnar has been training long enough that he’s not going to leave his neck or arm out there for Frank to grab. Let’s look to another relatively new MMA fighter to counter this point. I present Justin McCully as evidence. McCully trained with Tito Ortiz for close to 10 years before making his UFC debut in April of 2007 against Antoni Hardonk. In that fight, McCully consistenly left his arms and neck exposed to submission attempts, and if Hardonk had possessed even an ounce of submission skills he could have ended the fight over a dozen times. McCully has trained MMA, and even competed professionally in other organizations, for nearly 10 years and still left himself exposed. Why will Lesnar, and his vast 18 months of training experience and 68 seconds of actual fighting experience, be any different? Mir will pounce on even the smallest opportunity for submission and the fight will end.

(3) “The confidence game” [SC]

Mir looked very confident in a recent RawVegas.tv video. But when does a fighter ever publicly show his insecurities? A fighter can’t do that because it would be the death of him. I’m not saying that Mir is worried about Lesnar but I do think Mir could be worried about himself. He hasn’t been the same fighter since being involved in a serious motorcycle accident, which was apparently a lot worse than most people realize. Conditioning was never one of his strong suits but since coming back from the injury there were a few times when it appeared as though he didn’t pay enough of a price in the gym in preparing for his fights.

Lesnar is an intense competitor and an imposing physical presence. If Mir does not come into this fight in the proper frame of mind and fully prepared physically then there’s a good chance he will look for a way out if he gets into trouble against Lesnar as opposed to trying to fight through adversity.

It’ll be interesting to see if Lesnar can get any kind of edge when the two are standing face-to-face during the pre-fight weigh-in. The old Frank Mir wouldn’t have batted an eye but I don’t know if I can say that with all confidence about the Frank Mir of today. Lesnar’s best days are ahead of him. Can Mir say the same?

This is the only point of Sam’s that I think has merit. If Frank Mir is loses this fight, it will be because he beats himself either mentally or physically, with physically being the most likely option. I find it extremely hard to believe that Frank Mir is the least bit intimidating by Brock Lesnar. Sure Lesnar is a huge, brute of a man, but raw strength and physical prowess means nothing in MMA; just ask Royce Gracie about that one.

Mir could easily show up fat and out of shape like he has several times since his accident, but don’t anticipate that happening again for this fight. Mir knows how the UFC wants to promote Lesnar, and he knows what winning this fight decisively will do for putting him back in the UFC heavyweight mix. I find it humorous that Sam thinks Frank will wilt in the pre-fight stare down with Lesnar, as if he will wet his shorts or something.

(4) “Lesnar has a game plan for success” [SC]

Lesnar is training with Greg Nelson in the Minneapolis area. Nelson runs a strong camp with a lot of pro fighters so it’s not like some guy without a clue stepped up and requested a fight between Lesnar and Mir.

Lesnar’s camp knows something about Mir and they’ve had several months to install a gameplan. This isn’t a case of some arrogant rookie buying into his own hype and just calling out someone randomly. When Lesnar enters the cage at UFC 81 on February 2, he’ll be doing so with a blueprint for success.

Mir will have a gameplan of his own, but Lesnar is the better athlete and I think he will be more successful in imposing his will and putting Mir on the defensive.

I’m sure Lesnar is training with plenty of great fighters and will have an excellent game plan for the fight with Mir. I have no doubt he has watched every single fight Mir has been in and that they will have what they think is a foolproof game plan for winning. That’s all fine and good, but having a great gameplan and executing that game plan in the heat of battle are two vastly different things.

How many fighters have we seen get knocked around or rattled and then simply wilt under the pressure? My guess is that if and when Brock gets into trouble, all game planning will fly out the window and he will try to just use his brute strength to defend himself. That is exactly what Mir’s gameplan will be. To be patient and make Lesnar lose his focus and revert back to his raw instinct and strength. Once that happens, Mir will easily be able to capitalize and each and every beginner mistake that Lesnar makes.

Mir has been game planning for opponents his entire career. Lesnar has spent the last few years of his life having his “fights” literally scripted out for him. The best gameplan in the world does you know good when you get elbowed in the face and thrown into an arm lock.

Will Brock Lesnar ever live up to the hype?

Not this time. Maybe down the road, but at UFC 82, Frank Mir walks away the victor.

Take it to the bank.

- Dr J

P.S.

I know I must seem schizophrenic when it comes to my coverage of Frank Mir’s career. I have gone from love, to apathy, to hate and bewilderment and all the way back again, so please bear with me. Once this voice in my head goes away, I’ll let you know.