Randy Couture vs Brock Lesnar - How can a guy who only has three professional MMA fights be considered the slight favorite against the current champion? That is one of the many questions that makes this fight between current UFC heavyweight champ Randy Couture and challenger Brock Lesnar so intriguing.
The pros for Lesnar are obvious: his physical size and wrestling skill. Lesnar will weigh-in at 265 lbs. and most likely be close to 285 come fight time. Lesnar’s credentials in wrestling aren’t in question and we know he feels comfortable handling himself on the ground. The cons for Lesnar are also obvious: he does not have good BJJ defense, he has never been tested seriously, and he has never been hit hard in the face yet. We saw how Lesnar’s inexperience and lack of BJJ skills cost him in his fight against Frank Mir. We have yet to see how facing a decent striker and being put on his back affects Lesnar, and we will most likely get that experience in this fight.
Randy Couture continues to impress everyone with each fight he takes. But what is commonly overlooked is that Lesnar has only fought three times since 2005, losing once to Chuck Liddell and winning against Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga. How much will the 13 month layoff affect Randy this time? Well, it didn’t seem to affect him much last time against Tim Sylvia? I think what is more important to look at is Couture’s past fights against much bigger opponents. Couture has struggled heavily against bigger heavyweights like Ricco Rodgriguez, Josh Barnett, and Pedro Rizzo. Will Lesnar’s size affect Couture’s gameplan? No one really knows.
I am picking Couture to win the fight for these simple reasons: experience and gameplan. Lesnar’s inexperience and Couture’s large resume will play a huge factor. Couture has been in every kind of fight you can imagine and has all that past experience and knowledge to draw on in this fight. Lesnar is still learning as he goes and has never been caught in the heat of the moment during a fight. Couture gameplan’s probably better than anyone else and will know exactly how he plans to attach Lesnar. If Lesnar couldn’t finish Heath Herring after knocking him down early in the first round, I don’t see any way he will be able to finish Couture. Winner: Randy Couture
Kenny Florian vs Joe Stevenson - Man, what a tough lightweight matchup this is for both fighters. Of all the fights on this card, the Kenny Florian vs Joe Stevenson fight is the one that I think is truly 50/50. Both these guys are easily at the top of the UFC lightweight division and both are looking to get another shot at the title.
Joe Stevenson probably holds the edge in pure wrestling skill and also has what is regarded as one of the best guillotine choke submissions in MMA today. However, Kenny Florian definitely has the edge in the standup and BJJ games. All UFC fighters seems to want to “stand and trade” lately, whether that is their strong-suit or not, and I think that will favor Florian. Stevenson also knows that if he does take Florian to the ground, he has to be extremely careful at all times as Florian is comfortable off his back. I expect these two to go at it hard for a full three rounds with Florian taking the decision victory. Winner: Kenny Florian
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Josh Hendricks - Gabriel Gonzaga went from being the next big thing in the heavyweight division to just another heavyweight fighter. Funny, looking back now, defeating Cro Cop isn’t that big of a deal anymore, although the kick that did it was impressive. The fact remains that Gonzaga has an excellent jiu-jitsu game but not much striking prowess. Josh Hendricks will be making his UFC debut with a good record of 15-4 against some very average opponents. Hendricks himself favors the submission game, but most likely isn’t up to Gonzaga’s level. The UFC could use some new heavyweight talent, so here’s to hoping that Hendricks at least puts up a good fight. Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga
Nate Quarry vs Demian Maia - Other than being a “feel good” story due to his back injury, I’m not sure why Nate Quarry gets the attention he does by the UFC. Quarry is a solid fighter, but lets face it; he will never be a top contender in the middleweight division. He was handed a gift-wrapped title shot against Rich Franklin after wins against Lodune Sincaid, Shonie Carter, and Pete Sell and we all know how that fight at UFC 56 turned out for Quarry. The simplest way to break down this matchup is this: Nate Quarry simply isn’t good enough to defend against Demian Maia’s submission game. Sure Quarry has a strong striking game but everyone has a “puncher’s chance.” What Quarry doesn’t have is the BJJ skills that Maia has and once it gets to the ground, Quarry is in for trouble. Winner: Demian Maia
Dustin Hazelett vs Tamdan McCrory - When Amir Sadollah recently withdrew from his UFC 91 fight, Dustin Hazelett and Tamdan McCrory got the “promotion” to the main card and a chance to show everyone the talents they possess. That is a good thing for Dustin and not as good for Tamdan, in my opinion. While McCrory has decent striking and a decent submission game due to his lanky build, he isn’t in the same league as Dustin Hazelett. Hazelett’s submission game is far superior and his striking and kicking game is also better than McCrory’s. I’m glad this fight got bumped to the main card because I think these two could put on a good show. Winner: Dustin Hazelett
Jorge Gurgel vs Aaron Riley - Winner: Jorge Gurgel
Jeremy Stephens vs Rafael dos Anjos - Winner: Jeremy Stephens
Alvin Robinson vs Mark Bocek - Winner: Alvin Robinson
Matt Brown vs Ryan Thomas - Winner: Matt Brown
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Picks:
Randy (but I’m pulling for Lesnar)
KenFlo
Gonzaga
Quarry
Hazzelett
hey brother, why are you pulling for Lesnar… brother!? is it the 24inch. pythons? or the millions…. and millions bRocks fans? or is it because he IS “the next big thing”? lol.
LOL RJ, you know as well as i do, when you plant sht seeds.. you get sht weeds..
ROFL - lllllloooollllll — Its gotta be the PYTHONS BROTHER!!! WHATCH GONNA DO IF RANDY BEATS YOOOOOOOU!!!!
I am seriously holding my hand over my ear and listening for a deafening roar.. lol
i have
randy
stevenson
gonzaga
maia
hazzelett
riley,i hate gurgel
and ill make up my mind on the rest after i take a dump
I hate gurgel too but I think he’ll win a decision against Riley
When i first heard of this fight, i was behind Randy 100% like i said many times, hes WAY to smart and savy for Lesnar. I think the main point of the gameplan is to FRUSTRATE Lesnar, get into his head and Lesnar WILL get emotional and desperate in this fight. After Randy defeats him mentally, he will beat him physically.
Randy will win this fight by TKO, i see him raining down blows on Lesnar from the mount or rear mount late in the fight possibly round 4-5. Although Lesnar has great conditioning, I think he will have a huge adrenaline dump and lose about half his stamina because of apprehension. Lesnar may be used to being in the big show under the lights with all the fans, but how nervous can you really get for a scripted performance? The pressure is NOTHING compared to a REAL fight, a real title fight against a veteran fighter and champion like Randy.
The frustration and desperation will cause Lesnar to burn off the rest of his cardio trying to feed that giant mass of muscle. By the 4th round Lesnar will have NOTHING left in the tank. Against Herring, he spent most of the fight holding Heath and resting so we didnt see his cardio really put to the test. Randy will dance around avoiding the takedowns forcing Lesnar to waste energy and get emotional.
I think Lesnar is finally gonna be tested, his cardio, his chin, his heart, everything will be tested on saturday night, I CANT WAIT! :)
I appreciate the depth and thought you put into this comment BV - excellent perception, although I have Lesnar winning via Ko/GNP - or decision, doesn’t matter, you have two skilled wrestlers, only difference is some experience, which is almost offset by Lesnar’s size - and Couture’s striking/grappling, which will play into the fight, however when Brock landed on Heath, Heath almost got flipped, and he’s no lightweight in the chin department for the most part - so if Brock lands one of those on Randy, I can see the fight ending fairly quickly ..
BV
I can see where youre coming from in alot of what you say, whether i agree or disagree is not the point, but, why do people still doubt Lesnar for reasons involved with his WWE background?
“Lesnar may be used to being in the big show under the lights with all the fans, but how nervous can you really get for a scripted performance? The pressure is NOTHING compared to a REAL fight”
I never heard anyone say.. Rich Franklin is going to want to keep this fight standing, but this aint no math class, and this isnt a nerdy bunch of high school kids, this is Ken Shamrock, a UFC legend, he cant just send Shamrock to detention if he starts to feel the heat.
Nobody says that because he it would just be stupid… Just accept the fact that you have an unbelieveable athlete who wrestled “unscripted” very, very successfully before he wrestled scripted. Not to mention he was even considered for the NFL (not good enough, but still considered) AND, he literally dominated a veteran in his last fight. Herring is no comparison to Randy, but if you want to compare fights, then compare Nog and Herring to Lesnar and Herring. Nog is world class and Herring had that fight in a couple places. Where Herring could have lasted longer if he ran away from Brock and tried to climb out of the ogtagon.
“but, but, WWE is faaaaake…”
K, whats your point?
@BreakingNews
Im basically saying that hes feeling pressure that he hasnt felt before in this situation. The reason i mentioned WWE was so nobody could say “he wont get shook, hes used to being under the spotlight from his experience in WWE”. That showbiz type of confidence isnt the same as going into a fight confidence, so he wont be utilizing any experience he gathered from WWE besides his all around toughness.
I never said hes not a good athlete or doesnt have a great div 1 wrestling pedigree etc.. Anyone who doesnt see his skills obviously doesnt have a clue lol. You see how fast he scrambled in that fight with Mir? daaam i never seen a guy that big move so well on all fours.
Physically its a no-brainer Kesnar has every single advantage except maybe a little speed because Randys so much lighter. The point ive been trying to make is that the MENTAL aspect is what Randy will use to defeat Brock Lesnar.
I mean every aspect of the mental, his knowledge of tecnique, raw fight experience, familiarity with the octagon surfaces to help him score or avoid takedowns, the ability to frustrate his opponent, to force him to waste energy..
theres so many factors..
Lesnar can only do 1 thing, try and hold him down, but thats not gonna happen for 25 min straight, no way..
I disagree with the comments that say Brock only has a couple ways to win and Randy has soo many, and the comments that say Brock can only hold him down. His power and wrestling experience, combined with SOME submission training that im sure hes been doing, along with MMA standup that im also sure hes been working on, makes him able to win in so more ways than i think get considered.
im not saying these things because im a Lesnar fan or anything, in fact, Randy is one of my favorite fighters, and when i could easily afford to, i would drive to vegas to go to his fights, i only did that for Randy and GSP.
But the way i look at this is from the uncomparable abilities of Lesnar. On the UFC countdown they were saying that randy has already beaten “big fighters” and they compared people like Tim Sylvia. Tim Sylvia was a decent fighter but everyone had a strategy to stop him for everything he did, whether they implimented that strategy is beside the point. Brock has the advantage of possessing abilities that are new to the sport (not that successful wrestling is new, but the level of wrestling while being so large) in a way, its almost if they were the same people, but Randy was 170lbs and Brock was a 205er. And on top of that, your 205er cut weight to get down to 205. Of course Lesnar can be beat because your weight and power doesnt take into account what skill level you are at, but i also think that Brocks power can take away from Randys skill a little bit. Too many people are underestimating Lesnar. I would consider a real possibility for Randy to lose, also for Brock to lose. I always bet on the fights, but i wont be betting on this main event. And you wont find me saying things like “Randy SHOULD win this fight, I wont be surprised if Randy wins, Brock is just big and strong blah blah blah…”
i understand your points about Brock training in submissions and stand-up and and of course there a chance he could win by ether…. BUT the reason i threw those two things out for Brock is because there is a slim chance that a fighter with very little experience is going to catch a vet in a sub and Randy has been in the ring with a lot better strikers then Brock, so i dont think those two aspects will come in to play much. size, speed, and youth are all great things but you still need more then that to be the champ. for the record im picking Lesnar to win this fight so im not counting him out by any means (obviously) but it comes down to if Brock DOESNT lay and pray his way to the win then hes got a bad game plan and hes playing with fire.
Joe Daddy vs Kenflo
This was a particularly tough one for me since im a huge Stevenson fan but Kenny has just been on a different level these days. I agree with what Doc J said, but a few other things leap to mind aswell.
The main thing is the gameplan, this is not one of Joe Daddys strengths as we saw in the fight with BJ. After he got cut, he showed alot of heart going after BJ, but he was WAY too emotional and sloppy. BJ just stepped back and let him fire off those bombs for the first min or so, then once the fire died down, BJ destroyed him. Kenny is a much more tactical fighter than Joe, i believe that will be the determining factor in this fight.
Another thing is the elbows, in the clinch or on the ground Kenny has vicious elbows and if he catches Joe with a ginsu he gonna cut him open which could throw off Joe Daddys game (ala BJ).
Its tough for me to go against my boy, but i just think its a bad matchup for Joe. I would have liked to see Joe square off against someone like Sherk instead of Tyson. So if Kenny wins this fight, hes got BJ next and Joe will probably get Sherk.
Either this fight is getting stopped via cut, or Kenny wins a split decision.
My other picks…
Gonzaga
Quarry
Hazelett
Riley
Stephens
Robinson
Brown
well as much as this kills me to write this (and i hope im very wrong) i got Lesnar picked to win in a decision. IMO the 300lbs. blanket will be keeping Randy warm and cozy all fight long and it’ll turn out to be the most boring win since Sylvia/Monson. gawd i feel sick now lol. in Kenny vs. Joe i have Kenny working very smart game plan much like he did with Huerta, im hoping Kenny gets the W by decision and finally abandons his lame “i finish fights” campaign lol. Maia is a soon-to-be contender and Nate is not…. round 1 submission. i got Gonzaga winning at the end of round 1 via ground and pound. my lucky coin says Stephens, Bocek, and Brown all win there fights and no matter what my lucky coin says i can NOT EVER pick “Gorgeous Jorge” to win a fight lol.
Lesnar is fat and Couture is a Grandpa… Makes for a weak fight
Randy is superb for his age, and I don’t think he is a grandpa yet, not literally …. Brock is not fat, he’s stacked like Mr. Roid user —
Fight Strike, your comment makes no sense, this fight will be a heart-pounder - not weak like your comment content.
the only thing about this fight that kinda worries me that if randy loses its gonna be fast like under a minute
“Lesnar is fat and Couture is a Grandpa… Makes for a weak fight”
wow…
Gonzaga is young and got beaten to death by Randy, Herring isnt fat and got beaten to death by Brock.
(i only use those comparisons because Fight Strike seems like the only basis for opinions is cheap comparisons and what some guy at work told him)
The only thing old about Randy is high school graduation photos. As far as his body goes, hes doing just fine.
The only things fat about Brock is his fist and his bank account, and possibly his wallet so that his extra large fist can fit inside it. You find me one “fat” guy who can perform to the athletic level that he can
@Richard
You are correct - like BV was saying if Lesnar doesn’t kill fast then Randy will get in his head, and Lesnar will have a huge cardio dump because of adrenaline, and wont make it physically past the 4th round -
@BV,
Whats the site that shows all the fights for free? I got a buddy on twitter who is too cheap to by the PPV and is asking me
Doc, i just use TVU these days because you dont have to worry about the stream getting shut down. You can download it and install it, then theres a channel called MMATV and it shows all the ppvs.
I just checked justintv and you can check it out there on this page..
http://www.justin.tv/dmcaownzall
and theres a bunch of links under related videos if that one doesnt work.
wow, good night of fights. recap coming in the morning.