The UFC continues their busy start to 2009 with UFC 94: St. Pierre vs Penn this Saturday night in Las Vegas, NV. The main event will see the welterweight title on the line as current champion Georges St. Pierre battles BJ Penn in a rematch from UFC 58. While some pundit’s are criticizing the fight card as “weak”, save the main event, I think this card features some solid, evenly matched fights that could make for a strong event.

Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn – How does a person even begin to break down and analyze what will probably end up being one of the biggest fights of 2009? Instead of my normal style, I think I’m going to break down this fight category by category to justify my prediction of who will win.

Striking – BJ Penn’s victory over Sean Sherk at UFC 84 was his first victory via strikes since his explosive days at lightweight back in 2001-2002. While Penn is known for his grappling, he does have a solid standup game and has proven to be an elusive target to hit for most of his opponents. Penn possesses a strong jab and some surprising hand speed, but does not bring much to the table with leg or body kicks.

Georges St. Pierre’s striking game is technical and strong as well. St. Pierre will have a clear reach advantage in this fight and that will only improve his advantage on the feet. GSP physically roughed up Jon Fitch at UFC 87 and has used the same striking and kicking game to disrupt many of his recent opponents.

In their first meeting, Penn seemed to control the striking in the first round as GSP’s face showed the damage when the bell rang. I believe the thumb to GSP’s eye played the largest factor in that, but it still cannot be denied that Penn’s striking was effective and George’s is susceptible to an accurate striking attack.

Since their meeting two years ago, St. Pierre’s striking has improved immensely under the tutelage of Greg Jackson and others and I don’t see BJ Penn being able to do the same type of striking damage in this fight. Edge: Georges St. Pierre

Wrestling – In the past few years, Georges St. Pierre has proven himself to be one of the best wrestlers in MMA. In fact, St. Pierre’s wrestling has advanced so far that he considered attempting to compete for the Canadian wrestling team at last years Olympics.

Even when fighting opponents who were, at the time, considered superior wrestlers, like Josh Koscheck or Sean Sherk, St. Pierre easily dominated the wrestling game. St. Pierre has sharp, crisp takedown attempts and are usually successful and once he lands his opponent on the mat, GSP’s ground control is superb.

BJ Penn has never been known for having a strong wrestling game or for his takedown skills. In fact, when on his back or working from the top, Penn rarely uses pure wrestling control and instead relies on waiting for openings to use his BJJ talents.

The one place BJ Penn holds an edge over GSP, and everyone else in MMA, is in takedown defense. Penn has an uncanny ability to keep his balance and prevent himself from going down when he chooses to. Sure, even BJ Penn couldn’t prevent a takedown from a solid double-leg attempt, but anything less probably won’t get the job done against “The Prodigy.” Edge: Georges St. Pierre

Grappling / Submissions – An area of the fight where most prognosticators will give BJ Penn the decided advantage is in the submission and grappling game. While I do agree that Penn holds the edge in this category, I don’t think the gap between the two fighters is all that large.

Penn clearly has a natural talent for grappling and has honed that skill into a true art form over the course of his career. Penn’s natural flexibility allow him to maneuver himself in and out of some seemingly impossible positions while grappling with his opponent. Penn can secure a submission from any position or angle and St. Pierre’s long limbs may prove to be a disadvantage in this aspect of the fight.

While Penn may be the natural grappler, St. Pierre is no slouch when it comes to BJJ himself. GSP has worked hard on his grappling skills and uses his excellent takedowns and ground control to setup submission attempts from the top. I think against most other fighters, GSP would hold an edge in grappling, but its just not very likely that we will see BJ Penn get caught in a submission by Georges or anyone else. Edge: BJ Penn

Conditioning – BJ Penn could train for two years and still not have a shot at coming into this fight in better condition then Georges St. Pierre will. GSP is a physical specimen and has never once had an issue with cardio or physical conditioning.

The same can clearly not be said for BJ Penn. Sadly, a person’s reputation always precedes them, and BJ Penn’s career has been rife with instances of his conditioning being what cost him victory in a fight.

Since his drop to lightweight in 2007, we have seen BJ Penn in probably the best shape of his career. However, this fight is not taking place at lightweight and Penn will need to be carrying that extra weight he shed at lightweight to compete with GSP. St. Pierre will most likely enter the fight around 180-185 lbs. and that size advantage will play a large factor in the fight.

We have seen Penn barely able to get past the third round when he is carry around the extra weight he needs to at welterweight or middleweight. While I do expect Penn to come into this fight in good shape, I think it’s safe to say he won’t be in better shape then Georges St. Pierre. If the fight does make it into the later rounds, GSP clearly will be holding the conditioning advantage. Edge: Georges St. Pierre

This analysis can lead to only one pre-fight prediction. Winner: Georges St. Pierre

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva – This matchup of undefeated Brazilians could play a big part in determining who gets a light heavyweight title shot in 2009. Many feel that Machida already has been passed over several times for a title shot due to his perceive “unexciting” style of fighting. Thiago Silva has blasted through all four of his opponents in the UFC and has only had one of his 13 fights end in decision.

Like most Brazilian’s, Thiago Silva possesses a strong grappling game, but Silva prefers to use his power and quickness on the feet to win his fights. Silva has half his fights via strikes and will probably look to do the same against Machida.

That task may be a difficult one however, as Machida as established himself as an elusive opponent and one of the best “defensive” MMA artists in the game today. Machida’s defense and the technical striking skills from his karate background make him an extremely tough matchup for any opponent.

Many fans view Machida as a boring fighter because he never puts himself “out there” at risk in any of his matches. Machida always has a good game plan and plays it “safe” while attacking his opponents. While this may be frustrating to fans his his opponents, that type of gameplan has helped Machida win all 13 of his fights without ever being in much danger.

Unless Silva can land some solid strikes early and overwhelm a stunned Machida, I think Lyoto will once again methodically pick apart his opponent and further his case for deserving a shot at the title. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones – Stephan Bonnar makes his UFC return after a full 13-month layoff between fights. Originally slated to face Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 13 last April, Bonnar suffered a serious knee injury during training and was forced to pull out of the fight. After the death of his friend and long-time trainer Carlson Gracie, Bonnar began training with the team at Sityodtong and working with that fight camp can only help improve his conditioning and all-around game.

Bonnar should have the decided edge on in the grappling game as he possesses and excellent set of submissions. Bonnar’s height advantage should also give him an edge on the feet as he can utilize his jab and kicks to keep Jon Jones at a distance if he wants.

For some reason, I think Jon Jones will take this fight however. Jones won his UFC debut against Andre Gusmao at UFC 87 and currently holds an undefeated record at 7-0. I’ve only seen two of Jones’ fights, and he possesses some good speed and power in his hands. If Jones can survive Bonnar’s ground assault in the first round, I think we’ll see him pick up a KO victory in the second. Winner: Jon Jones

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim – It may seem strange for a fighter with the credentials and record he has, but Karo Parisyan is in danger of becoming a “lost man” and a “gatekeeper” in the UFC. Parisyan was at one time considered a top contender in the welterweight division, but a loss to Diego Sanchez at UFC Fight Night 6 dashed the judoka stars hopes for a title shot.

Since the loss to Sanchez, Parisyan has gone 3-1 with the loss coming in his last fight against Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night 13 where Parisyan was KO’d for the first time in his career. That loss was back in April of 2008 and Karo has been dealing with various injuries and a personal issue with panic attacks in the mean time which forced him to withdraw from a fight at UFC 88 only hours before the weigh-ins began. Parisyan desperately needs a win in convincing fashion in this fight to regain his footing and put his name back out there as a solid welterweight contender.

Dong Hyun Kim won’t just lie down for Parisyan however, and is looking to make a name for himself in the UFC. Kim is a veteran of the DEEP promotion in Japan and is a solid fighter with good striking skills who could give Karo problems if the fight stays standing.

Karo needs to come into this fight in excellent shape and needs to put pressure on Kim from the opening bell. Odds are this fight will go to a decision, and my guess is Parisyan will once again do enough to win on points. Winner: Karo Parisyan

Nathan Diaz vs. Clay Guida – Clay Guida consistently puts on exciting fights in the UFC. What Guida may lack in raw talent and skill, he makes up for with hustle and heart in the aggressive, all-out style he brings to each and every fight. Guida has had his ups and downs in the UFC regarding wins-and-losses, but it’s evident that Guida just wants to fight
and that is what makes him a dangerous opponent.

Nathan Diaz’s skills lie in his excellent grappling and submission game. Unlike his older brother Nick and other MMA fighters, Nate Diaz has not fallen prey to the deception that you must stand and strike to be “exciting” to the fans. Diaz knows what his strengths are and continues to prove that submission fight can be just as, if not more, exciting as a standup battle.

While Guida has fallen prey to submissions in the past, he does have a strong submission defense game which has allowed him to stay in several fights longer then he probably should have. Against a BJJ artist like Diaz however, escaping one submission will probably directly lead into an alternate submission attempt. Look for this fight to be fast-paced from the start with Diaz securing a submission at some point during the fracas. Winner: Nate Diaz

Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono – Winner: Jon Fitch
Manvel Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares – Winner: Thiago Tavares
Chris Wilson vs. John Howard – Winner: Chris Wilson
Jake O’Brien vs. Christian Wellisch – Winner: Jake O’Brien
Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer – Winner: Matt Arroyo