Frank Edgar did what only a minority of fans were predicting when he out-decisioned former UFC lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Sherk was expected by most to win, and move one step closer toward another title shot.
Edgar had other intentions, and impressed both B.J Penn and Miguel Torres in the process. As for Sherk, he literally ‘left the building’, only to return for his post-fight urinalysis. I think it is safe to assume Lyoto Machida will be steering clear of that plastic cup.
Even Dana White was impressed in his post fight remarks.
“I never give predictions on fights, but in my head I kept saying ‘There’s no way Frankie Edgar can win this fight. He’s smaller. As long as Sherk’s been in the game – he’s bigger. They’re both wrestlers. And I’ll tell you, this kid put on an amazing show.”
The lightweight division marches on when Diego Sanchez and Clay Guida collide at the TUF 9 season finale. Also on that fight card, Nate Diaz will take on Joe Stevenson. Diaz is coming off a split decision loss to Guida while Stevenson is coming off a decision loss to Sanchez.
On August 8, the lightweight division title will be on the line when B.J. Penn defends his belt against Kenny Florian at UFC 101.
Waiting in the wings are Gray Maynard, coming off his striking UFC 96 win over Jim Miller, and Tyson Griffin who is coming off his exhilarating win at UFN 18 win against Rafael dos Anjos.
Now that we have all our puzzle pieces, let’s assemble the lightweight puzzle. Doing so requires picking winners in fights, so here goes.
If Sanchez beats Guida, he is likely in line to fight the winner of Penn-Florian. The only other set-up for Sanchez would be if the UFC makes him fight Frankie Edgar while Gray Maynard gets the winner of Penn-Florian. Maynard gets the nod since he decisioned Edgar at UFC 13.
But it seems more reasonable to think the UFC would like to put together a fight between Sanchez and the Penn-Florian winner. Sanchez dropped down from 170 pounds to make a title run and, at this juncture, has more forward momentum and marketability then Maynard does.
If Sanchez does get the nod, an Edgar-Maynard rematch would make the most sense on paper but will the UFC actually want to schedule these two for another fight? The winner would clearly be a top fighter in the division, and it would be intriguing to see how both have improved since their first fight, just over a year ago.
When the dust settles, the following matchups are most likely to take place:
- B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
- Gray Maynard vs. Frankie Edgar
- Kenny Florian vs. Tyson Griffin
- Sean Sherk vs. Nate Diaz
- Clay Guida. Vs. Joe Stevenson
If Kenny Florian loses to Penn, a logical fight comes against Tyson Griffin. Griffin is all set to step back into the title mix after his win over Dos Anjos. If Florian wins, he obviously goes on to fight Sanchez, while we can only guess what B.J Penn would do if he loses two straight fights.
Sean Sherk, coming off his loss to Edgar, would be in line to face the winner of Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson. In the last fight listed, Clay Guida could face off against Joe Stevenson, assuming they both lose their respective fights.
This scenario is based on assuming the UFC will round robin their top ten lightweight fighters which is not necessarily likely. Often, when a top fighter loses, they get a fight against an up and comer or relative unknown.
For an example, wee Tyson Griffin vs. Rafael dos Anjos or Josh Koschek vs. Pualo Thiago.
Looking outside the Top 10, fighters like Joe Lauzon and Hermes Franca are in contention, yet are sidelined with injuries.
Fighters to keep an eye on are the Spencer Fisher vs. Caol Uno winner (UFC 99), Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller winner (UFC 100), Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellgrino winner (UFC 101) and Gleison Tibau.
Frankie Edgar shook up the lightweight division when he handed Sherk only the fourth loss in thirty-eight fights. It will be interesting to see how the division unfolds in the second of half of 2009.
One thing is for certain: Frankie is now a force and any talk of the smaller fighter dropping down to the WEC featherweight division has now been silenced.
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Caesar Gracie
John
Yael Grauer
Dale
Tyler Johnson
felo
Mike
Tony
Shawn
Ben Cartlidge
ive said it to lot of people (including Grey himself) Grey Maynard WILL be the UFC lightweight champ sooner or later, its just a matter of time. i know some people think of him as just another boring wrestler, but the guy works his asss off in the gym getting his standup up to par. in Maynards last fight we got a taste of his boxing and i guarantee its not the last we’ve seen of those heavy hands, anyone with better standup will get put on there back and beat up and anyone with similar or lesser standup will get crushed on there feet. mark my words.
I agree with you on Maynard. What do you think about a Maynard-Edgar rematch to determine a No. 1 contender? Or do you think Diego Sanchez deserves the nod if he beats Clay Guida at TUF 9?
i dont think Diego should get the next shot just based on the fact that he hasnt done all that much at lightweight (i think a fighters status in ranking should be left to the weightclass they gained the status in) but realistically i can see Sanchez getting a shot (if he beats Guida) so in the interest of keeping things F.U.B.A.R. in the UFC i would like to see Diego (after beating Clay) get a shot at the winner of Kenny/BJ and Grey/Edgar to get a shot at the winner of Diego/Kenny/BJ, if that makes any sense. but like i said before, it doesnt matter whos holding the title when Grey gets his shot. im kinda surprised i havent been flamed yet for calling Grey the uncrowned champ lol, i hope people can see Maynard for what he is a very talented, hard working, humble guy out side the cage and a destroyer of men inside.
p.s. good article, keep up the good work.
Ya no doubt RJ, i picked Maynard to win TUF and i was pissed when he got robbed of his when when he allegedly knocked himself out against Rob Emerson. His striking has DEFINATELY improved and hes been a beast lately, but idunno about being the champ. Its just such a stacked division man, especially with BJ and Kenny leading the pack, no Diegos dropped down. Id be very impressed if he becomes champ while those guys are still around.
i dont see maynard as the next champ who has he really faught to really prove himself?edgar at the time really wasnt a top tier fighter,now maybe but not then.he needs to fight sherk florian,guida,sanchez,stevenson im probably forgetting someone but those kinds of fighters.
yeah your right i dont see Maynard being the next champ ether, but not because i dont think he can do it but because like you said he should have to beat guys like Sherk, Florian, Guida, and other guys of that caliber, if just to legitimize his shot at who ever is holding the title. a lot of times beating a name (or being a name) will get you a shot and im not really a big fan of that, if Grey beats down anyone in the top 15 and the fans have a good reaction he’ll get a shot sooner, if not he will have to pick off top 10s till the have no choice but to give him a shot.
but i can say for maynard that his wrestling is bar none and that alone can take u a long way.
Richard, i dunno about that, not to say Maynards wrestling isnt excellent, but theres other excellent wrestlers in the div like Sherk, Frankie Edgar, Tyson Griffin. Remains to be seen who is the best wrestler, but i tend to think that his improved striking could be what makes the difference to put him above the other strong wrestlers in the div.