The UFC celebrates a milestone this weekend with the UFC 100 fight card. While this is not the UFC’s 100th event, or even the 100th Pay-Per-View card, reaching the centennial mark is a great accomplishment for a promotion that was close to extinction only a few years ago.
Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar – The UFC’s newest heavyweight hope, Brock Lesnar, will have the opportunity to stand alone at the top of the mountain or suffer a major setback in his MMA hopes.
Most of the awe surrounding Lesnar revolves around his “massive” size and girth, but Frank Mir is not a small man by any means. While Lesnar will undoubtedly weigh-in at 265 lbs., Mir will probably tip the scales somewhere around 255 lbs. himself. It would be foolish for me to suggest that Mir will be able to match Lesnar’s strength, but as far as physical size I think both men will be pretty evenly matched.
Lesnar is also widely regarded for his background as a top collegiate wrestler, but those skills most likely won’t help him in this matchup against Frank Mir. Mir will gladly welcome Lesnar to the canvas in hopes of a repeat of their first matchup.
While Mir insists he has the tools to defeat Lesnar standing up, most fans recognize that the smart move is for Mir to attempt to work the fight to the mat and use his vastly superior submission skills.
Brock Lesnar definitely is a strong man and in turn a powerful striker, but let’s not forget this is still only Brock’s fifth professional fight. Powerful striking is not the same as technical striking and it’s not the same has being an experienced striker. While Mir is not known as a striker, his striking skills are up to par on a technical level with Lesnar’s. Working with Mark Delegrotte in training, can only have improved Mir’s standup that much more.
While this fight truly could go either way in my mind, I have to give the nod to Frank Mir in this matchup just for the experience factor. I think Mir will be able to hold his own with Lesnar on the feet during the first round, and that will be enough to put some doubt into Lesnar’s mind. Eventually, Mir will be able to work the fight to the ground and pull off a submission victory to regain the heavyweight title outright.
Winner: Frank Mir
Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves – I’m looking forward to this fight for several reasons. First, I’m a huge GSP fan and always look forward to his fights, but I’m also excited to see GSP’s gameplan and see him completely control another fight.
The UFC has been hyping Thiago Alves to no end calling him “GSP’s toughest test to date” and calling Alves a “bigger, stronger” opponent. I realize of lot of the talk is just the UFC “hype machine” but I have to consider GSP’s last matchup with BJ Penn a tougher fight than facing Alves now.
The UFC 100 Countdown special on SpikeTV hyped the fact of how Alves quickly knocked out Matt Hughes and how he dominated his last fight against Josh Koscheck. Not sure how they seem to forget that GSP also easily KO’d Matt Hughes and dominated Josh Koscheck as well.
Alves strength is clearly his striking game and more specifically his kicking game. While Alves may be a purely stronger fighter, I think St. Pierre’s boxing skills are equal to Alves’. I do give Alves the advantage in the kicking game, both in power and technical accuracy.
Alves weakness is his ground game however, and that is where Georges St. Pierre excels. GSP was able to effortlessly get takedowns against the likes of Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck and BJ Penn, so I don’t see him struggling to bring Thiago Alves to the mat.
Takedown’s is also one area where Alves’ kicking game will be a detriment to him. With a skilled wrestler and takedown artist like Georges St. Pierre, throwing a few leg kicks is like sending a huge invitation to be dragged down to the canvas.
I expect GSP to take the fight to the ground from the outset and work his trademarked ground and pound game to victory.
Winner: Georges St. Pierre
Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping – I have some pretty strong personal opinions about this matchup, mostly because I still don’t see the fascination with Michael Bisping. Sure, Bisping is a decent fighter, but in my opinion he is only pushed heavily by the UFC so they can secure successful events in Europe and the United Kingdom.
If we are going to be analytical, lets really look at Bisping’s career record in the UFC. His first victories were against Josh Haynes, Eric Schafer and Elvis Sinosic. If anyone is impressed by any of those victories, then you shouldn’t be an MMA fan. Bisping was losing the Sinosic fight until he was able to turn things around in the second round.
Bisping’s next “victory” was against Matt Hamill, a fight that everyone outside of the UK acknowledges Bisping really lost. Next up was Rashad Evans, a loss that forced him to move down to the middleweight division.
Bisping was then handed a gift-wrapped opponent in Charles McCarthy, followed by Jason Day and Chris Leben. Not exactly any top-tier victories. Now I’m not saying Bisping is a bad fighter, I’m just saying he’s not a great fighter and not on Dan Henderson’s level.
Bisping possesses solid striking but a rather weak ground game. If Rich Franklin, Quinton Jackson, Wanderlei Silva and a slew of other fighters have been unable to KO Hendo, I don’t think Bisping will either.
Dan Henderson should be able to win this matchup standing or on the ground. I anticipated “Hollywood” looking to take the fight to the ground and beat on Bisping early and often as Dan is looking to punish Bisping and embarrass him. Henderson’s wrestling and ground-and-pound game are easily too much for Bisping to handle and will provide Henderson with an easy avenue for victory.
Winner: Dan Henderson
Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago – Why this matchup is even taking place has me seriously scratching my head. Jon Fitch is still one of the top three welterweights in the UFC, in my opinion. Paulo Thiago probably isn’t in the top 20.
Thiago first fought in the UFC at UFC 95 as a late replacement against Josh Koscheck. Thiago didn’t even have a guaranteed contract at the time and was only fighting on a one-fight deal as a fill in. That is how little the UFC expected from him.
However, we all know what happened and Thiago managed to knockout Koshcheck in the first round to improve his record to 11-0. So, the question remains: how good is Paulo Thiago?
The answer: not nearly good enough to defeat Jon Fight and not good enough to beat Josh Koscheck again most likely. Fitch’s striking is better, his wrestling is better and most likely is ground game is at least on par, if not better than Thiago’s. I expect an extremely easy victory for Fitch.
Winner: Jon Fitch
Alan Belcher vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama – Japanese star Yoshihiro Akiyama will make his UFC debut after signing with the promotion back in February.
For whatever reason, Akiyama is bringing a lot of hype and expectation into this debut. I’ve covered Akiyama’s checkered past before, and you can be certain he won’t be brining any brass knuckles or body lotion into this matchup with Alan Belcher.
Akiyama does have strong punching power and good judo throws and if he fights smartly he should be able to handle Belcher. However, we’ve seen in the past that fighters don’t always compete up to their potential the first time they step into the Octagon.
Belcher’s strength is his strong Muay Thai skills, his weakness has been consistency. We’ve seen Alan Belcher look like an explosive world beater, and we’ve also seen fights were Belcher looked like a middle of the pack fighter. If Belcher can keep the fight from going to the ground, where he is weakest, I think he’ll be able to outpoint Akiyama and perhaps gain a TKO victory.
Winner: Alan Belcher
Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar – Winner: Stephan Bonnar
Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller – Winner: Jim Miller
Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien – Winner: Jon Jones
Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant – Winner: Dong Hyun Kim
CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor – Winner: Tom Lawlor
Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty – Winner: Shannon Gugerty
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i agree with most of the good doctors picks except two, im gonna say Lesnar over Mir and Bisping over Hendo. first i say Mir is going to eat one on his feet and ether go down in a heap or eat one and find away to drag it to the ground quick, if Mir gets it to the ground i can see him being too aggressive looking for a sub and leaving a hole for Brock to smash him. now onto the prediction that will get me flamed, the reason im saying Bisping is gonna win is purely gameplan. Hendo seems to always have the same gameplan, a few heymakers, takedown, ground’n'pound, rinse and repeat, Bisping has good technical striking and while i dont think he has the power to KO Henderson i do think he can keep Dan on the outside and use good footwork and good counter striking to frustrate and outpoint Hendo. so dont flame me too bad for this till after the fights, if im wrong i will accept all the “your a *******” statements coming to me, but if im right all the nah sayers must bow down and give prop to the king (ME) hows that for a deal lol.
Doc i really dont know what your talking about here, Mir same size as Lesnar?? dude, Lesnar is gonna walk in near 300 not 265, while Mir doesnt even have to cut weight. You just have to look at them to know theyre not near the same size, they are only the same height, atleast if Frank was taller that could help his striking, but sadly no.
Standing up, ya Mirs faster and more technical, but whatever Brock hits… he destroys lol. Regardless of that, if Mir IS getting the better of the standup brock WILL take him down, theres no way Mir could EVER stop that shoot. Brock could say ready Frank? im about to shoot.. and it wouldnt make any difference.
Now on the ground, whole new game than before, Brock has learned how to use his wrestling and strength to neutralize the BJJ game. Hold the guy from side position or a side mount and drop a few shots on him every 5 seconds. Nothing risky just hold him down wrestling style ala Sherk, sap his energy putting the weight on him and essentially just beat him up and stay out of trouble.
I will be VERY impressed if Frank wins this fight, stranger things have happened but i think Frank is in trouble on the 11th…
Mir is in much better shape now, but there was a time he had to cut to make 265. Also, I don’t think Brock is going to cut 40 pounds and regain it all back after the weigh-in. I think he fights closer to 275 or 280.
Anyways, all I was trying to say is that Mir is a big guy himself. This isn’t like Brock going against Randy or some of the smaller heavyweights; Frank is a decent sized heavyweight himself.
I agree Frank couldn’t stuff Brock’s takedowns. But I can’t give Brock credit for any improved BJJ game because he haven’t seen it. Everyone is assuming that just because time has passed and Brock has been training that he really has improved greatly on the ground, but we have no way of knowing if that is the case.
Doc, so your saying Lesnar only cuts 10 pounds, while someone like Hughes or Sherk cut 30 pounds at about 100 pounds lighter weight class? seriously, i doubt it man.
I know for a fact that Tim sylvia used to come in around 300lbs while weighing in at 265 and hes just a regular guy, while Lesnar has been cutting weight since highschool.
Anyways, i see what your saying now, Mir is not a 220 pound guy fighting at HW, hes a good sized HW which is true but hes not the same size as Lesnar man, thats a bit of a stretch.
In response to the BJJ thing, nobody is saying Brock has improved his BJJ game, he simply learned to modify his wrestling for MMA. For example his fights with Herring and Randy, granted theyre not BJJ guys, but i dont think it would have made much of a difference in the position Brock maintained pretty much the whole fight.
Size, Strength, Cardio and Wrestling… thats been a recipe for UFC champions for a long time.
I think the only way someone can beat Lesnar is on the feet and that would be a hell of an accomplishment considering his ridiculous shoot. I mean he could probably take down a bear man lol
lol now that would be something to see, Brock shooting a double on a big ol’ grizzly lol but here is the real question, do you think Lesnar can takedown a full grown silverback? now those big buggers got some good raslin’ lol.
No, what I’m saying is this. Sure, I don’t doubt that Brock walks around at 300 lbs. But he wont gain back 35 lbs between the weigh-ins and the event.
Sure, over the past month he has probalby had to cut 25-35 pounds, but come fight time he probably only gains about 10 lbs back from the cut from the past 48 hours.
Tim Sylvia weighs around 300 pounds as we saw against Ray Mercer, but look at him in that fight and then look at him in the UFC. He had to cut to 265 lbs and probably weighed about 275 come fight time. He didnt cut down to 265 and then balloon back up to 300 in 24 hours, thats what I’m trying to say
Brock, Alves & Hendo will all win Saturday. Could care less about the rest of the card.
Gatties, care to elaborate on the Alves pick? 1st round ko or something? thats the only way i see him beating Georges, and i seriously doubt thats gonna happen.
Georges is just so go at “putting it all together” you never know what hes gonna do because every technique is quicker than the eye, it could be a leg kick, superman punch, shoot and you have almost no time to react, dam hes fast man.
Gatties wont give you a reason for a pick, he just throws em out there so if it happens he can say “see i told you guys, your all stupid!” lol.
lol so true, did you watch the presser RJ? nothing exciting happened but i always watch them..
Gatties gets 15 minutes of internet per day. The rest is spent raising his newborn daughter and paying bills to help towards some medical costs. So basically, go f*ck yourselves.
Doc will probably erase this but if he’s going to allow me to be a target, he should allow for a retort.
i doubt Doc will get rid of your message (i hope not) and your “retort” is just about perfect, how did you ever come up with such a witty “retort” as “go f*ck yourselves.” that really told us lol. thing is Gatties, you have a habit of coming here and calling people names and being a douche, so im gonna say you being a “target” is your own fault. im glad to see you are providing for your child and it sucks to only get 15min/day of interneting time, but do you really have to spend those 15min being a d*ck?
Ok, i get you doc.. hey, what happened to MMA live today? videos not online, isnt it supposed to start at like 3:30 est?
Thanks for the link Doc, is it just me or did they barely talk about UFC 100? they spent a little time on lesnar/mir and gsp/alves, but other than that it was all other stuff. I guess with the next 2 shows in the following days it will all be about UFC 100 so they wanted to get other stuff out of the way.
Its interesting that they dont have much to say about Akiyama, its like the UFC knows that japanese fans will tune in regardless of advertising and the americans fans wont care even if they did talk about him.
Thats another factor that leads me to believe the UFC is not expecting much from Akiyama. If they wanted to build him up, he would have got a tuneup fight, hype videos, etc..
i think Brock is trying to get everone (including Dana and the UFC brass) to hate him, im not sure what his deal is but the WWE shtick needs to go.
GSP does what GSP does, and it doesnt seem anyone can do anything about it.
Hendo’s horrific KO of Bisping made me jump out of my seat, and the replay sat me back down. every time they showed a replay it seemed to look worse then the last time they showed it lol.
Akiyama/Belcher……? who do you think won? Akiyama 30-27, i dont effen think so lol.