As UFC 112 looms, we come that much closer to seeing two of the best pound-for-pound fighters enter the cage in hopes of defending their titles. Whether or not either of the top contenders truly deserves their title shot has been a hotly debated topic throughout the year and continues to cause controversy.

Lightweight Champion B.J Penn goes into UFC 112 with three title defences and has been on a path of destruction unlike anything the division has seen before. His total dominations of Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez left little doubt as to who the top lightweight in the world is today.

And now at UFC 112, Frankie Edgar will step up to the plate. Despite being defeated by Gray Maynard, who many thought should be receiving this title show in Edgar’s place, his ability to finish opponents and put on stellar, exciting bouts won him favor with UFC president Dana White.

On the same card Jiu-Jitsu world champion Damian Maia will attempt to take the title from around Anderson Silva’s waist. After a 21 second destruction last August at the hands of Nate Marquardt, many believed that Maia was not deserving of this opportunity, but the three top contenders at middleweight (Sonnen, Maia, Marquardt) have weaved a wicked web with a win and a loss all against each other.

So now only days away from UFC 112, we have two top contenders fighting for belts that many believe that they not only are not the top challengers for, but also do not have a chance of winning. So the question is which champion is more likely to lose their title?

Well roundedness is something that is becoming more vital in the sport with every event. Being one dimensional is no longer an option for elite level fighters, unless of course you are Damian Maia. His Jiu-Jitsu skills alone have brought him to a 12-1 mixed martial arts record and now provide him with a shot at the title. It was not until Maia’s last fight against Dan Miller that he began to show any real improvement in the stand-up department.

Despite the slightly improved striking, Maia’s only chance in this fight is to get it to the ground. Fighters such as Patrick Cote and Rich Franklin who are known for their stand-up skills were picked apart by Silva. If Maia thinks this is a good time to try out his new skills, he’s sorely mistaken. His wrestling is better than it gets credit for and perhaps he will be able to get this fight to the ground.

The real test will be whether or not he can keep Silva on the mat in a way that other Jiu-Jitsu specialists such as Travis Lutter and Thales Leites could not. Silva has been caught with submissions before, however that was many years ago.
Frankie Edgar has been impressing people with his stellar wrestling and ever improving boxing skills. Most recently he displayed a new aspect of his game in submitting Matt Veach. To defeat Penn, Edgar will have to use quick boxing to get in and out. He will have to avoid Penn’s jab as that is what he uses to set up other combinations and eventual takedowns. Distance will be a major factor in this fight and Edgar will need to control it if he wants to have any chance.

So which challenger has a better chance of walking out of UFC 112 with championship gold?

In my opinion it is Damian Maia. His ground game is among the best in the sport and if he can somehow find a way to get Silva down and pass his guard there could be a possible submission victory.

Despite Edgar being the more well rounded of the challengers, his skills both on the ground and standing are far behind Penn’s. There is of course the puncher’s chance that every fighter has, but Penn has shown great boxing skills in his previous fights and it is unlikely he will get caught. Edgar’s wrestling could potentially get the fight to the ground, but from there his odds are no better as Penn is a former Jiu-Jitsu world champion.

In short, the Edgar vs. Penn fight may last longer due to the fact that Penn is typically not an early finisher, but Maia has the better chance of pulling off the seemingly impossible upset.